No. 01 / LNER
London King’s Cross Edinburgh
07:33
Off-Peak
Off-Peak
Fare proxy
£185.00
Expected back
£11.90
Net cost
£173.10
Any delay proxy
28.0%
LateMate / special investigation / 52 journeys
MODELLED, NOT GUARANTEEDTHE GREAT BRITISH TRAIN DELAY CHALLENGE
A deliberately provocative model using 52 illustrative journeys, £2,904 in assumed fares and Delay Repay bands. It is a thought experiment, not a forecast.
See the 52 trainsAll exact probabilities and live fares are unverified. The figures below use route and operator risk proxies, not live predictions or confirmed train-level records.
The national ledger
The maths, in one glance
Illustrative fares£2,904.00
Expected Delay Repay£193.82
Expected net cost£2,710.18
Expected return6.67%
Expected value is probability multiplied by the modelled compensation band. It is not money already earned, money owed, or a claim decision.
One ticket pulled from the hat
Train of Shame
Not Britain’s worst train. Not a live prediction. Just one of the 52 modelled journeys, selected to make the assumptions visible.
The complete deck
All 52 journeys
Browse every row from the source model. 52 shown.
Fare proxyDelay Repay modelDelay proxies
| Journey | Fare | Expected back | Net cost | Any delay | 15 min+ | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| London King’s Cross EdinburghLNER · 07:33 · South East / Scotland | £185.00 | £11.90 | £173.10 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Edinburgh London King’s CrossLNER · 08:40 · South East / Scotland | £185.00 | £11.90 | £173.10 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London Euston Manchester PiccadillyAvanti West Coast · 08:03 · South East / North West | £95.00 | £6.11 | £88.89 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Manchester Piccadilly London EustonAvanti West Coast · 09:10 · South East / North West | £95.00 | £6.11 | £88.89 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Manchester Piccadilly ScarboroughTransPennine Express · 08:46 · North West / Yorkshire | £42.00 | £3.53 | £38.47 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Scarborough Manchester PiccadillyTransPennine Express · 09:53 · North West / Yorkshire | £42.00 | £3.53 | £38.47 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Glasgow Queen Street ObanScotRail · 09:21 · Scotland West | £34.00 | £2.19 | £31.81 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Oban Glasgow Queen StreetScotRail · 10:28 · Scotland West | £34.00 | £2.19 | £31.81 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Birmingham New Street Bristol Temple MeadsCrossCountry · 09:12 · Midlands / South West | £45.00 | £2.90 | £42.10 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Bristol Temple Meads Birmingham New StreetCrossCountry · 10:19 · Midlands / South West | £45.00 | £2.90 | £42.10 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Leeds Blackpool NorthNorthern · 08:39 · Yorkshire / North West | £28.00 | £2.36 | £25.64 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Blackpool North LeedsNorthern · 09:46 · Yorkshire / North West | £28.00 | £2.36 | £25.64 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| London Paddington PenzanceGWR · 08:04 · South East / South West | £75.00 | £4.83 | £70.17 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Penzance London PaddingtonGWR · 09:11 · South East / South West | £75.00 | £4.83 | £70.17 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London Waterloo WeymouthSWR · 08:35 · South East / South Coast | £62.00 | £3.99 | £58.01 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Weymouth London WaterlooSWR · 09:42 · South East / South Coast | £62.00 | £3.99 | £58.01 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London King’s Cross CambridgeGreat Northern · 08:15 · South East / East | £33.00 | £2.12 | £30.88 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Cambridge London King’s CrossGreat Northern · 09:22 · South East / East | £33.00 | £2.12 | £30.88 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Manchester Piccadilly LlandudnoTransport for Wales · 09:27 · North West / North Wales | £32.00 | £2.06 | £29.94 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Llandudno Manchester PiccadillyTransport for Wales · 10:34 · North West / North Wales | £32.00 | £2.06 | £29.94 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London Marylebone Birmingham Moor StreetChiltern · 08:55 · South East / Midlands | £45.00 | £2.00 | £43.00 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 1.0% |
| Birmingham Moor Street London MaryleboneChiltern · 09:02 · South East / Midlands | £45.00 | £2.00 | £43.00 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 1.0% |
| London King’s Cross LeedsLNER · 09:03 · South East / Yorkshire | £55.00 | £3.54 | £51.46 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Leeds London King’s CrossLNER · 10:10 · South East / Yorkshire | £55.00 | £3.54 | £51.46 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London Euston Liverpool Lime StreetAvanti West Coast · 08:43 · South East / North West | £88.00 | £5.66 | £82.34 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Liverpool Lime Street London EustonAvanti West Coast · 09:50 · South East / North West | £88.00 | £5.66 | £82.34 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Edinburgh InvernessScotRail · 08:30 · Scotland East / Highlands | £58.00 | £3.73 | £54.27 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Inverness EdinburghScotRail · 09:37 · Scotland East / Highlands | £58.00 | £3.73 | £54.27 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Leeds PlymouthCrossCountry · 08:16 · Yorkshire / South West | £92.00 | £7.74 | £84.26 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Plymouth LeedsCrossCountry · 09:23 · Yorkshire / South West | £92.00 | £7.74 | £84.26 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Manchester Victoria LeedsNorthern · 09:17 · North West / Yorkshire | £24.00 | £2.02 | £21.98 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Leeds Manchester VictoriaNorthern · 10:24 · North West / Yorkshire | £24.00 | £2.02 | £21.98 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Bristol Temple Meads Cardiff CentralGWR · 09:08 · South West / Wales | £26.00 | £1.67 | £24.33 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Cardiff Central Bristol Temple MeadsGWR · 10:15 · South West / Wales | £26.00 | £1.67 | £24.33 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Portsmouth Harbour London WaterlooSWR · 08:47 · South Coast / South East | £42.00 | £2.70 | £39.30 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London Waterloo Portsmouth HarbourSWR · 09:54 · South Coast / South East | £42.00 | £2.70 | £39.30 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Cambridge London King’s CrossGreat Northern · 08:08 · East / South East | £33.00 | £2.12 | £30.88 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London King’s Cross CambridgeGreat Northern · 09:15 · East / South East | £33.00 | £2.12 | £30.88 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Cardiff Central HolyheadTransport for Wales · 08:23 · Wales | £48.00 | £3.09 | £44.91 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Holyhead Cardiff CentralTransport for Wales · 09:30 · Wales | £48.00 | £3.09 | £44.91 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Leeds SheffieldNorthern · 08:41 · Yorkshire | £22.00 | £1.42 | £20.58 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Sheffield LeedsNorthern · 09:48 · Yorkshire | £22.00 | £1.42 | £20.58 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Newcastle London King’s CrossLNER · 07:45 · North East / South East | £95.00 | £6.11 | £88.89 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London King’s Cross NewcastleLNER · 08:52 · North East / South East | £95.00 | £6.11 | £88.89 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Manchester Piccadilly London EustonAvanti West Coast · 08:55 · North West / South East | £95.00 | £6.11 | £88.89 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| London Euston Manchester PiccadillyAvanti West Coast · 09:02 · North West / South East | £95.00 | £6.11 | £88.89 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Liverpool Lime Street YorkTransPennine Express · 09:02 · North West / Yorkshire | £35.00 | £2.95 | £32.05 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| York Liverpool Lime StreetTransPennine Express · 10:09 · North West / Yorkshire | £35.00 | £2.95 | £32.05 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| Glasgow Central AyrScotRail · 09:10 · Scotland West | £18.00 | £1.16 | £16.84 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Ayr Glasgow CentralScotRail · 10:17 · Scotland West | £18.00 | £1.16 | £16.84 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Bristol Temple Meads Birmingham New StreetCrossCountry · 08:50 · South West / Midlands | £45.00 | £2.90 | £42.10 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
| Birmingham New Street Bristol Temple MeadsCrossCountry · 09:57 · South West / Midlands | £45.00 | £2.90 | £42.10 | 28.0% | 13.0% | 1.8% |
“Any delay”, “15 min+” and “Cancelled” are modelled proxies. They do not establish that a particular train will be late or that a claim will be accepted.
Read the small print
A challenge is not a claim
The model asks what the 52 journeys might be worth if a set of assumptions held. The operator asks a different question: what happened to your ticketed journey, and does the current policy apply?
Expected value
Expected refund is a probability-weighted estimate. It is useful for comparing the rows in this model, but it is not a promise, forecast or balance.
Actual Delay Repay
Delay Repay is conditional compensation for a journey you took. The train company checks the ticket, operator, delay, route, evidence and claim deadline.
Ticket refund
A refund for an unused ticket is different from Delay Repay compensation. The rules depend on the ticket and why it was not used.
Cancellations
A cancelled train may lead to different rights and arrangements. It is not silently treated as a long delay in this challenge.
Destination arrival
The model’s delay bands are intended to relate to the arrival threshold at your destination, not the moment a train first loses time.
What is unverified
Exact train probabilities and live fares were not verified. Fares are illustrative adult standard-class single assumptions with no Railcard.
Source dataset: weekly-delay-savings-by-journey.csv, accessed 5 August 2026 UTC. Risk proxies were informed by ORR and official operator or National Rail policy sources. Check the relevant operator’s current rules before making a claim.